Open AccessMapping temperature using a B ayesian statistical method and a high accuracy surface modelling method in the B eijing– T ianjin– H ebei region, C hina
Author(s) -
Zhao Na,
Lu Ning,
Chen Chuanfa,
Li Han,
Yue Tianxiang,
Zhang Lili,
Liu Yu
Publication year - 2017
Publication title -
meteorological applications
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.672
H-Index - 59
eISSN - 1469-8080
pISSN - 1350-4827
DOI - 10.1002/met.1657
Subject(s) - beijing , environmental science , bayesian inference , bayesian probability , land cover , china , statistics , climatology , meteorology , geography , land use , mathematics , geology , civil engineering , archaeology , engineering
A more accurate B ayesian statistical technique together with a high accuracy surface modelling method ( HASM ) was used to improve the accuracy of temperature fields in the B eijing– T ianjin– H ebei ( BTH ) region, C hina. Bayesian statistical inference theory was first applied to fill missing daily values for meteorological stations on an annual scale. A mixed interpolator was then employed to simulate the annual mean temperature and was compared with other methods. The annual mean temperature was produced and the inter‐decade change was investigated. The results show that the values filled by B ayesian statistical inference theory agree well with actual observations. A comparison with other interpolators shows that combining the Bayesian estimation method with the HASM gives better results than those of the other methods tested in this study. The construction of the annual mean temperature for 10 years shows the change interval and the spatial distribution of temperature in the BTH region. The annual temperature over 10 years changed from less than −1 ° C in the northwest to more than 14 ° C in the southeast. From 1981–1990 ( T1 ) to 1991–2000 ( T2 ) and T2 to 2001–2010 ( T3 ) the temperature change was spatially stationary and varied mainly from −0.05 ° C to 0.05 ° C , except for some areas such as the southwest of T angshan city and the south of T ianjin city where land cover and land use has exhibited large decadal variation during the past 30 years.