Open AccessImproving road weather model forecasts by adjusting the radiation input
Author(s) -
Karsisto Virve,
Nurmi Pertti,
Kangas Markku,
Hippi Marjo,
Fortelius Carl,
Niemelä Sami,
Järvinen Heikki
Publication year - 2016
Publication title -
meteorological applications
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.672
H-Index - 59
eISSN - 1469-8080
pISSN - 1350-4827
DOI - 10.1002/met.1574
Subject(s) - environmental science , meteorology , numerical weather prediction , range (aeronautics) , model output statistics , weather forecasting , road surface , surface weather observation , climatology , geography , geology , materials science , composite material
Considerable savings in winter road maintenance and accident costs can be achieved with accurate road weather forecasts. Forecasting road surface freezing time accurately enables the timely start of salting and thus ensures safety on roads. The optimal use of road weather observations is essential for the accuracy of short‐range road condition forecasts. Road weather models incorporate radiation and other atmospheric variables from numerical weather prediction models. In this study, observations were used to correct the forecast radiation and thus improve road weather forecasts for a set of specific sites. Eighteen different configurations of this methodology were tested for 20 road weather stations in Finland during the autumn–winter period 3 October 2013 to 13 January 2014. This study shows that the coupling method has potential to significantly improve road surface temperature forecasts. Two model configurations in particular turned out to be better than the others giving almost equally good road surface temperature forecasts. It was found that the length of the adjustment period using the corrected radiation had only a slight effect on the results. The outcome of this study can be used to improve road weather models and thus achieve more accurate forecasts.