Open AccessA flexible approach to the objective verification of warnings
Author(s) -
Sharpe Michael A.
Publication year - 2016
Publication title -
meteorological applications
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.672
H-Index - 59
eISSN - 1469-8080
pISSN - 1350-4827
DOI - 10.1002/met.1530
Subject(s) - computer science , flexibility (engineering) , simple (philosophy) , categorization , event (particle physics) , data mining , warning system , machine learning , artificial intelligence , telecommunications , statistics , physics , mathematics , epistemology , quantum mechanics , philosophy
Warning services are popular due to their conceptually simple nature; however, a simple approach to their verification can lead to misleading results, from which it can be difficult to diagnose poor from excellent performance, and when improvement is required it is often difficult to know where efforts should be focused. A flexible, systematic approach to the verification of warnings enables the performance to be evaluated in terms of space, time, intensity and confidence. This paper describes such an approach, which has been implemented at the Met Office. Flexibility is achieved via the introduction, and separate categorization, of near‐hit and compound event types, enabling the spatial, temporal and effectual accuracy to be examined and the most significant errors diagnosed. An illustrative example of this methodology is included in this paper.