Seasonal forecasts of the  SINTEX‐F  coupled model applied to maize yield and streamflow estimates over north‐eastern  S outh  A frica | Zendy

Malherbe J. | Zendy; Landman W. A. | Zendy; Olivier C. | Zendy; Sakuma H. | Zendy; Luo J J. | Zendy

Open Access

Seasonal forecasts of the SINTEX‐F coupled model applied to maize yield and streamflow estimates over north‐eastern S outh A frica

Author(s) -

Malherbe J.,

Landman W. A.,

Olivier C.,

Sakuma H.,

Luo J J.

Publication year - 2014

Publication title -

meteorological applications

Language(s) - English

Resource type - Journals

SCImago Journal Rank - 0.672

H-Index - 59

eISSN - 1469-8080

pISSN - 1350-4827

DOI - 10.1002/met.1402

Subject(s) - streamflow , environmental science , climatology , yield (engineering) , agriculture , baseline (sea) , surface runoff , meteorology , geography , geology , drainage basin , ecology , oceanography , materials science , cartography , archaeology , metallurgy , biology

Forecasts of a G lobal C oupled M odel for austral summer with a 1 month lead are downscaled to end‐of‐season maize yields and accumulated streamflow over the L impopo P rovince and adjacent districts in northeastern S outh A frica through application of an MOS ( M odel O utput S tatistics) approach applied over a 28 year period. Promising results, based on the hindcasts of the G lobal M odels and historically observed yield and streamflow data, suggest potential for a commodity‐orientated forecast system for application in agriculture in an operational environment. It also serves as a baseline study for inclusion of sophisticated crop or runoff models using GCM output data towards estimating potential yields and streamflows in the region. Copyright © 2013 Royal Meteorological Society

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