Open AccessSeasonal forecasts of the SINTEX‐F coupled model applied to maize yield and streamflow estimates over north‐eastern S outh A frica
Author(s) -
Malherbe J.,
Landman W. A.,
Olivier C.,
Sakuma H.,
Luo J J.
Publication year - 2014
Publication title -
meteorological applications
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.672
H-Index - 59
eISSN - 1469-8080
pISSN - 1350-4827
DOI - 10.1002/met.1402
Subject(s) - streamflow , environmental science , climatology , yield (engineering) , agriculture , baseline (sea) , surface runoff , meteorology , geography , geology , drainage basin , ecology , oceanography , materials science , cartography , archaeology , metallurgy , biology
ABSTRACT Forecasts of a G lobal C oupled M odel for austral summer with a 1 month lead are downscaled to end‐of‐season maize yields and accumulated streamflow over the L impopo P rovince and adjacent districts in northeastern S outh A frica through application of an MOS ( M odel O utput S tatistics) approach applied over a 28 year period. Promising results, based on the hindcasts of the G lobal M odels and historically observed yield and streamflow data, suggest potential for a commodity‐orientated forecast system for application in agriculture in an operational environment. It also serves as a baseline study for inclusion of sophisticated crop or runoff models using GCM output data towards estimating potential yields and streamflows in the region. Copyright © 2013 Royal Meteorological Society