Statistical relationship between atmospheric circulation and extreme precipitation in La Plata Basin

Empirical conditional probabilities of extreme monthly precipitation averaged over three regions of the southern part of the L a P lata basin were calculated as a function of three atmospheric indices: two of them represent low level moisture convergence and the third is related to the mid tropospheric circulation over southern S outh A merica. The first region includes southern P araguay, northeastern A rgentina, north of U ruguay and the western sector of southern B razil, the second region stretches over part of southern B razil, while the third region, surrounding the P lata E stuary extends over western U ruguay and eastern A rgentina between 37 ° S and 32 ° S . Regional monthly precipitation was considered extreme when it exceeded its mean value plus one standard deviation. Conditional empirical probabilities of M onths with E xtreme P recipitation ( MEP ) are more than twice and even four times higher than climatic probabilities when they are calculated under the restriction that the atmospheric indices were beyond certain extreme thresholds empirically defined. Combined conditional probability is even higher when the values of two or the three indices over their respective thresholds take place at the same time, but these cases are less frequent. The index that renders higher conditional probabilities is the one that accounts for the low level moisture convergence in a region that is basically to the west and outside of the three regions. This reflects the fact that most of the mesoconvective systems, which originate to the west of these regions and then move eastwards, produce heavy precipitation that lead to monthly accumulated extremes. Copyright © 2013 Royal Meteorological Society