Open AccessImprovement of 1‐month lead predictability of the wintertime AO using a realistically varying solar constant for a CGCM
Author(s) -
Ahn JoongBae,
Kim HaeJeong
Publication year - 2014
Publication title -
meteorological applications
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.672
H-Index - 59
eISSN - 1469-8080
pISSN - 1350-4827
DOI - 10.1002/met.1372
Subject(s) - hindcast , predictability , environmental science , climatology , lead (geology) , solar constant , constant (computer programming) , meteorology , lead time , atmospheric sciences , oscillation (cell signaling) , physics , mathematics , statistics , geology , computer science , solar irradiance , geomorphology , marketing , biology , business , genetics , programming language
The impact of solar constant variation on the predictability of the Arctic Oscillation ( AO ) is investigated in terms of 1 month lead hindcast data obtained from a coupled general circulation model. The 1 month lead hindcasts produced from a realistic initial solar constant experiment (Solar Run, SR ) and from a climatological solar constant experiment (Control run, CR ) are comparatively analysed. The 1 month lead hindcasts were initiated from mid‐November, mid‐December and mid‐January of each year for the period 1980–2009. The hindcast of the SR showed better skill than that of the CR in terms of forecasting not only the AO index but also the atmospheric circulation pattern related with the AO . This shows that the prescription of realistic solar constant as the initial condition is necessary for improved AO prediction. Copyright © 2013 Royal Meteorological Society