Open AccessAssessing the economic value of El Niño ‐based seasonal climate forecasts for smallholder farmers in Zimbabwe
Author(s) -
Makaudze Ephias M.
Publication year - 2014
Publication title -
meteorological applications
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.672
H-Index - 59
eISSN - 1469-8080
pISSN - 1350-4827
DOI - 10.1002/met.1366
Subject(s) - yield (engineering) , gross margin , agricultural economics , value (mathematics) , outreach , dssat , promotion (chess) , margin (machine learning) , citizen journalism , agricultural science , economics , crop , geography , environmental science , mathematics , agriculture , economic growth , statistics , political science , computer science , materials science , archaeology , machine learning , forestry , politics , law , metallurgy
This study demonstrates the potential value of forecasts to smallholder farmers in Zimbabwe, the majority of whom often suffer severely from the impact of drought. Using crop simulation models to compare yield performances of farmers with and without forecasts, results indicate that, for a drought year, farmers with forecasts (WF) record higher yield gains (28%) compared to those without forecasts (WOF): in particular, farmers located in the most arid regions (NR V) recorded the highest yield gains (42%). A similar trend is observed during a neutral/average year, as farmers WF obtain predominantly higher yield gains (20%) than those WOF. However, during a good year, results show a different pattern as no yield gains are observed. In fact, farmers WOF perform better, suggesting forecasts in this case may not make much difference. Using gross margin analysis, results show farmers WF obtaining higher returns during a drought (US$0.14 ha −1 ) and neutral year (US$0.43 ha −1 ) but again not for a good year as farmers WOF outperform those WF. To summarize, forecasts can play an important role as loss‐minimization instruments especially if the underlying year is an El Niño (drought) year. In conclusion, to attain full economic value of forecasts, complementary policies (currently missing) such as effective communication, improvement in forecast extension skills and promotion of farmer participatory and outreach activities could prove vital in enhancing the value of forecasts to smallholder farmers in general. Copyright © 2012 Royal Meteorological Society