Open AccessLong lead time flood warnings: reality or fantasy?
Author(s) -
Golding B. W.
Publication year - 2009
Publication title -
meteorological applications
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.672
H-Index - 59
eISSN - 1469-8080
pISSN - 1350-4827
DOI - 10.1002/met.123
Subject(s) - warning system , lead time , flood myth , lead (geology) , flooding (psychology) , flood warning , computer science , permission , vulnerability (computing) , probabilistic logic , environmental science , meteorology , operations research , computer security , business , history , geography , telecommunications , engineering , political science , law , artificial intelligence , psychology , archaeology , marketing , geomorphology , psychotherapist , geology
This paper reviews recent advances in weather forecasting capability in the United Kingdom and their implications for increasing the lead time with which flood warnings can be issued. The events of summer 2007 have highlighted the vulnerability of parts of the United Kingdom to flooding and the need for long lead time flood warnings to enable the protection of people and critical infrastructure. Historically, computer weather forecasting models have been unable to forecast at the scales of importance for flood warning, and so the warning processes have been forced to rely on measurements on the ground. Examples are presented to demonstrate that new forecasting technologies, currently being implemented, enable warnings to be produced much earlier, provided they are couched in probabilistic terms and interpreted appropriately. Crown Copyright © 2009. Reproduced with the permission of the Controller of HMSO. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd