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Managerial evaluation of exogenous forecast sources
Author(s) -
Lawrence David B.
Publication year - 1991
Publication title -
managerial and decision economics
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.288
H-Index - 51
eISSN - 1099-1468
pISSN - 0143-6570
DOI - 10.1002/mde.4090120307
Subject(s) - benchmark (surveying) , econometrics , vendor , computer science , logistic regression , variable (mathematics) , range (aeronautics) , consensus forecast , operations research , economics , business , marketing , mathematics , machine learning , engineering , mathematical analysis , geodesy , aerospace engineering , geography
This paper concerns the managerial evaluation of forecast vendors—individuals or firms offering for sale future forecasts of random variables relevant to managerial decision making. Assuming the forecasts are exogenous in the sense they are generated by a methodology unknown or unproven to management, the paper uses a logistic regression model to present a statistical test for informativeness that allows for an interpretation of the vendor's abilities. The advantage of the approach is that it requires as input only knowledge of the unconditional probability distribution of the variable being forecast and a relatively small historical track record of the vendor's forecasting performance. No benchmark forecast is necessary and few assumptions are required about the statistical process that generates the forecasts. As an illustrative empirical application, the paper presents an evaluation of the informativeness of the published long‐range price forecasts by a veteran analyst of the Iowa hog market.