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Combining scenario planning and multi‐criteria decision analysis in practice
Author(s) -
Montibeller Gilberto,
Gummer Haidee,
Tumidei Daniele
Publication year - 2006
Publication title -
journal of multi‐criteria decision analysis
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.462
H-Index - 47
eISSN - 1099-1360
pISSN - 1057-9214
DOI - 10.1002/mcda.403
Subject(s) - multiple criteria decision analysis , computer science , management science , decision analysis , decision support system , scenario planning , operations research , strategic planning , risk analysis (engineering) , wright , process management , artificial intelligence , engineering , business , management , economics , mathematical economics , programming language
The integrated use of scenario planning and multi‐criteria decision analysis (MCDA) has been advocated as a powerful combination for providing decision support in strategic decisions. Scenario planning helps decision makers in devising strategies and thinking about possible future scenarios; while MCDA can support an in‐depth performance evaluation of each strategy, as well as in the design of more robust and better options. One of the frameworks proposed recently, by Goodwin & Wright, suggests the use of scenario planning with multi‐attribute value theory, a mathematically simple, yet extensively researched and widely employed multi‐criteria method. However, so far, such framework has been presented only using hypothetical problems. In this paper, we describe two case studies where this approach was used to support real‐world strategic decisions. We discuss the challenges and limitations we encountered in applying it and suggest some possible improvements that could be made to such framework. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.