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The operation of Lake Kariba: A multiobjective decision analysis
Author(s) -
Insua David Rios,
Salewicz Kazimierz A.
Publication year - 1995
Publication title -
journal of multi‐criteria decision analysis
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.462
H-Index - 47
eISSN - 1099-1360
pISSN - 1057-9214
DOI - 10.1002/mcda.4020040402
Subject(s) - inflow , heuristic , hydropower , computer science , mathematical optimization , task (project management) , process (computing) , operations research , mathematics , artificial intelligence , engineering , systems engineering , geology , electrical engineering , operating system , oceanography
The paper describes a successful application of Bayesian decision analysis to the operation of the Lake Kariba hydropower system. This management problem is complicated by the high uncertainty of the inflow process, multiple and conflicting objectives and the influence of time on some of the parameters in the management task. Inflows to the reservoir are forecast through dynamic linear models. Managerial preferences are modelled through a multiattribute utility function. Since the solution of the exact model is computationally too demanding, a heuristic method is applied to find a feasible control strategy. A comparison with results obtained by methods used previously demonstrates the superiority of the methodology presented here.