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Projected outcomes of 6‐month delay in exception points versus an equivalent M odel for E nd‐ S tage L iver D isease score for hepatocellular carcinoma liver transplant candidates
Author(s) -
Alver Sarah K.,
Lorenz Douglas J.,
Marvin Michael R.,
Brock Guy N.
Publication year - 2016
Publication title -
liver transplantation
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.814
H-Index - 150
eISSN - 1527-6473
pISSN - 1527-6465
DOI - 10.1002/lt.24503
Subject(s) - medicine , hepatocellular carcinoma , liver transplantation , model for end stage liver disease , milan criteria , liver disease , dropout (neural networks) , gastroenterology , stage (stratigraphy) , transplantation , oncology , paleontology , machine learning , biology , computer science
The United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) recently implemented a 6‐month delay before granting exception points to liver transplantation candidates with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) to address disparity in transplantation access between HCC and non‐HCC patients. An HCC‐specific scoring scheme, the Model for End‐Stage Liver Disease equivalent (MELD EQ ), has also been developed. We compared projected dropout and transplant probabilities and posttransplant survival for HCC and non‐HCC patients under the 6‐month delay and the MELD EQ using UNOS data from October 1, 2009, to June 30, 2014, and multistate modeling. Overall (combined HCC and non‐HCC) wait‐list dropout was similar under both schemes and slightly improved (though not statistically significant) compared to actual data. Projected HCC wait‐list dropout was similar between the MELD EQ and 6‐month delay at 6 months but thereafter started to differ, with the 6‐month delay eventually favoring HCC patients (3‐year dropout 10.0% [9.0%‐11.0%] for HCC versus 14.1% [13.6%‐14.6%]) for non‐HCC) and the MELD EQ favoring non‐HCC patients (3‐year dropout 16.0% [13.2%‐18.8%] for HCC versus 12.3% [11.9%‐12.7%] for non‐HCC). Projected transplant probabilities for HCC patients were substantially lower under the MELD EQ compared to the 6‐month delay (26.6% versus 83.8% by 3 years, respectively). Projected HCC posttransplant survival under the 6‐month delay was similar to actual, but slightly worse under the MELD EQ (2‐year survival 82.9% [81.7%‐84.2%] versus actual of 85.5% [84.3%‐86.7%]). In conclusion, although the 6‐month delay improves equity in transplant and dropout between HCC and non‐HCC candidates, disparity between the 2 groups may still exist after 6 months of wait‐list time. Projections under the MELD EQ , however, appear to disadvantage HCC patients. Therefore, modification to the exception point progression or refinement of an HCC prioritization score may be warranted. Liver Transplantation 22 1343–1355 2016 AASLD .