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Prognostic modeling in pediatric acute liver failure
Author(s) -
Jain Vandana,
Dhawan Anil
Publication year - 2016
Publication title -
liver transplantation
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.814
H-Index - 150
eISSN - 1527-6473
pISSN - 1527-6465
DOI - 10.1002/lt.24501
Subject(s) - medicine , liver transplantation , liver failure , natural history , intensive care medicine , prognostic model , liver disease , etiology , transplantation , disease , overall survival
Liver transplantation (LT) is the only proven treatment for pediatric acute liver failure (PALF). However, over a period of time, spontaneous native liver survival is increasingly reported, making us wonder if we are overtransplanting children with acute liver failure (ALF). An effective prognostic model for PALF would help direct appropriate organ allocation. Only patients who would die would undergo LT, and those who would spontaneously recover would avoid unnecessary LT. Deriving and validating such a model for PALF, however, encompasses numerous challenges. In particular, the heterogeneity of age and etiology in PALF, as well as a lack of understanding of the natural history of the disease, contributed by the availability of LT has led to difficulties in prognostic model development. Several prognostic laboratory variables have been identified, and the incorporation of these variables into scoring systems has been attempted. A reliable targeted prognostic model for ALF in Wilson's disease has been established and externally validated. The roles of physiological, immunological, and metabolomic parameters in prognosis are being investigated. This review discusses the challenges with prognostic modeling in PALF and describes predictive methods that are currently available and in development for the future. Liver Transplantation 22 1418–1430 2016 AASLD .