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Expanded criteria donor grafts for deceased donor liver transplantation under the MELD system: A decision analysis
Author(s) -
Amin Manish G.,
Wolf Michael P.,
TenBrook John A.,
Freeman Richard B.,
Cheng Steve J.,
Pratt Daniel S.,
Wong John B.
Publication year - 2004
Publication title -
liver transplantation
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.814
H-Index - 150
eISSN - 1527-6473
pISSN - 1527-6465
DOI - 10.1002/lt.20304
Subject(s) - medicine , liver transplantation , transplantation , waiting list , surgery , urology
Expanded criteria donor (ECD) liver grafts have a higher likelihood of primary graft failure (PGF) compared with standard criteria donor (SCD) grafts. Given a choice between an available ECD graft versus waiting for an SCD graft that may not always become available, what should liver transplant candidates do? The study's aim was to estimate 1‐year survival comparing immediate ECD liver grafting with waiting for an SCD organ. Using UNOS data, published literature estimates, and expert opinion, we constructed a Markov decision analytic model to estimate survival while waiting for an SCD transplant and survival with immediate ECD transplant. Sensitivity analyses were performed by varying model parameters individually and simultaneously with a second‐order Monte Carlo simulation. For all patients with MELD scores >20, survival was higher with immediate ECD transplant despite the additional increased risk for PGF. Survival was better with an immediate ECD transplant unless the probability of PGF exceeded 23%, 72%, and 88% for recipients with MELD scores of 11–20, 21–25, and 26–30 respectively. For patients with MELD scores >30, the survival benefit with the immediate ECD strategy persisted at even higher rates of PGF. In conclusion, our results suggest that, despite the higher risk for PGF, transplantation with an available ECD graft should be preferred over waiting for an SCD organ for patients with advanced MELD scores. At less advanced MELD scores, the survival benefit depends on the risk of PGF associated with the ECD organ. (Liver Transpl 2004;10:1468–1475.)