Predictable shifts in diversity and ecosystem function in phytoplankton communities along coastal salinity continua

Salinity is a major environmental predictor of phytoplankton species richness and composition. We hypothesize that the variation in phytoplankton richness along coastal salinity gradients is reflected in essential ecosystem functions like resource use efficiency (RUE)—the proportion of limiting resource that is converted into biomass. To test the hypothesis, we analyzed time series of phytoplankton and environmental variables from the Chesapeake Bay and the Baltic Sea. We analyzed the relationship among salinity, diversity, and RUE in bivariate and interaction association, and in structural equation model (SEM)—a form of path analysis to resolve multivariate relationships among interrelated variables. We concluded that the intrusion of marine water will lead to rapid change in species diversity on the fresh side. Despite diversity drop, individual community functions, like RUE, remain relatively resilient, reflecting functional redundancy. We propose that the salinity gradient also reflects trophic complexity, allowing stable resource use at reduced diversity.