Open AccessSeascape topography slows predicted range shifts in fish under climate change
Author(s) -
Champion Curtis,
Coleman Melinda A.
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
limnology and oceanography letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
ISSN - 2378-2242
DOI - 10.1002/lol2.10185
Subject(s) - seascape , pelagic zone , climate change , range (aeronautics) , habitat , species distribution , oceanography , ecology , environmental science , geography , fishery , biology , geology , materials science , composite material
Shifts in marine species distributions are occurring rapidly in response to climate change, yet predicted rates of change are partly dependent on the data used to estimate species distributions. While pelagic fishes are known to respond to dynamic oceanographic variables, static topographic features can also regulate their distributions, yet the effect of topography on rates of range shifts remains poorly understood. For a suite of five pelagic fishes from an ocean warming hotspot, we developed generalized additive mixed models that did and did not incorporate preferences for seascape topographic heterogeneity when estimating species distributions. Monthly spatial predictions over two decades revealed that poleward extensions in species' core environmental habitats were significantly reduced by 5.3–60.4% (7.1–131.4 km per decade) when preferences for seascape topography were incorporated. These findings suggest that ignoring species associations with static environmental features can substantially affect predicted rates of climate‐driven redistributions in fishes.