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Re‐evaluating the northeastern Minnesota moose decline and the role of wolves
Author(s) -
Mech L. David,
Fieberg John
Publication year - 2014
Publication title -
the journal of wildlife management
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.94
H-Index - 111
eISSN - 1937-2817
pISSN - 0022-541X
DOI - 10.1002/jwmg.775
Subject(s) - canis , geography , demographics , demography , predation , systemic lupus erythematosus , range (aeronautics) , ecology , biology , medicine , sociology , materials science , disease , pathology , composite material
We re‐evaluated findings from Lenarz et al. (2009) that adult moose ( Alces alces ) survival in northeastern Minnesota was related to high January temperatures and that predation by wolves ( Canis lupus ) played a minor role. We found significant inverse relationships between annual wolf numbers in part of the moose range and various moose demographics from 2003 to 2013 that suggested a stronger role of wolves than heretofore believed. To re‐evaluate the temperature findings, we conducted a simulation study, mimicking the approach taken by Lenarz et al. (2009), to explore the potential for concluding a significant relationship exists between temperature and survival, when no association exists. We found that the high R 2 s and low probabilities associated with the regression models in Lenarz et al. (2009) should be viewed cautiously in light of the large number of fitted models ( m = 45) and few observations ( n = 6 for each of 5 response variables). Published 2014. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.