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Persistence Characteristics of Tourism Arrivals to Australia
Author(s) -
Assaf A. George,
GilAlana Luis A.,
Barros Carlos Pestana
Publication year - 2011
Publication title -
international journal of tourism research
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.155
H-Index - 58
eISSN - 1522-1970
pISSN - 1099-2340
DOI - 10.1002/jtr.844
Subject(s) - tourism , long memory , ranking (information retrieval) , persistence (discontinuity) , econometrics , autoregressive model , seasonal adjustment , seasonality , unit root , series (stratigraphy) , economics , process (computing) , unit (ring theory) , geography , computer science , statistics , mathematics , variable (mathematics) , engineering , geology , artificial intelligence , volatility (finance) , mathematical analysis , paleontology , geotechnical engineering , archaeology , operating system , mathematics education
This paper examines the degree of persistence in international monthly arrivals to Australia by using data disaggregated by tourism‐source countries. We employ two competing models, which are very general in the sense that they include (seasonal and non‐seasonal) unit roots as particular cases of interest. The first model is based on a long‐memory process in the non‐seasonal part of the series along with a short‐memory autoregressive (AR) seasonal structure. The second model is based on a long‐memory process for the seasonal structure of the series, the short‐term evolution being described through a non‐seasonal AR(1) process. Results based on the residuals and forecasting assessment indicate that the second model is preferable in terms of fitting the data. We provide persistence ranking of all countries included in the study and discuss the managerial implications of the main findings. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.