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Economic Policy Uncertainty and Tourism Demand: Empirical Evidence from the USA
Author(s) -
Gozgor Giray,
Ongan Serdar
Publication year - 2016
Publication title -
international journal of tourism research
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.155
H-Index - 58
eISSN - 1522-1970
pISSN - 1099-2340
DOI - 10.1002/jtr.2089
Subject(s) - cointegration , economics , tourism , unit root , index (typography) , empirical evidence , public economics , economic impact analysis , econometrics , structural break , macroeconomics , microeconomics , political science , philosophy , epistemology , world wide web , computer science , law
This paper investigates the effects of uncertainty on tourism spending (direct sales) by USA domestic tourists over the period of 1998Q1–2015Q4. For this purpose, for the first time, the Economic Policy Uncertainty index was used as an independent variable in tourism demand analysis models. Unit root and cointegration tests are applied to account for unknown structural breaks. The empirical findings indicate that a higher level of Economic Policy Uncertainty leads to significant declines in tourism spending in the long run. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.