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Nomogram for predicting central node metastasis in papillary thyroid carcinoma
Author(s) -
Kim Seo Ki,
Chai Young Jun,
Park Inhye,
Woo JungWoo,
Lee Jun Ho,
Lee Kyu Eun,
Choe JunHo,
Kim JungHan,
Kim Jee Soo
Publication year - 2017
Publication title -
journal of surgical oncology
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.201
H-Index - 111
eISSN - 1096-9098
pISSN - 0022-4790
DOI - 10.1002/jso.24512
Subject(s) - nomogram , medicine , thyroid carcinoma , receiver operating characteristic , confidence interval , dissection (medical) , thyroidectomy , neck dissection , general surgery , radiology , lymph node metastasis , metastasis , carcinoma , surgery , thyroid , cancer
Background There was a difficulty for detecting Central lymph node metastasis (CLNM) in papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) patients. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to design a nomogram for predicting CLNM. Methods A total of 10,763 PTC patients who underwent total thyroidectomy with central neck dissection (CND) in Samsung Medical Center were randomly assigned to the training set (n = 7,535) and to the internal validation set (n = 3,228). And, a total of 2,514 PTC patients who underwent total thyroidectomy with CND at Seoul National University Hospital were assigned to the external validation set. Results The values of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve in the training set, internal validation set, and external validation set were 0.721 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.709–0.732), 0.706 (95%CI, 0.688–0.724), and 0.706 (95%CI, 0.685–0.727), respectively. Conclusions We recommend the use of our nomogram to enable clinicians and patients to easily personalize and quantify the probability of CLNM during the both pre‐ and postoperative period. Clinicians may consider the prophylactic CND and meticulous postoperative evaluation in PTC patients with a high nomogram score. J. Surg. Oncol. 2017;115:266–272 . © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.