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Testing the sensitivity of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet to Southern Ocean dynamics: past changes and future implications
Author(s) -
FOGWILL CHRISTOPHER J.,
TURNEY CHRISTIAN S. M.,
MEISSNER KATRIN J.,
GOLLEDGE NICHOLAS R.,
SPENCE PAUL,
ROBERTS JASON L.,
ENGLAND MATHEW H.,
JONES RICHARD T.,
CARTER LIONEL
Publication year - 2014
Publication title -
journal of quaternary science
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.142
H-Index - 94
eISSN - 1099-1417
pISSN - 0267-8179
DOI - 10.1002/jqs.2683
Subject(s) - westerlies , interglacial , ocean gyre , geology , antarctic ice sheet , climatology , oceanography , ice sheet , southern hemisphere , sea ice , antarctic bottom water , future sea level , ocean current , cryosphere , antarctic sea ice , thermohaline circulation , glacial period , paleontology , subtropics , fishery , biology
The stability of Antarctic ice sheets and their potential contribution to sea level under projected future warming remains highly uncertain. The Last Interglacial (135 000–116 000 years ago) provides a potential analogue, with global temperatures 2 °C higher and rates of sea‐level rise >5.6 m ka −1 , leading to sea levels 6.6–9.4 m higher than present. The source(s) of this sea‐level rise remain fiercely debated. Here we report a series of independent model simulations exploring the effects of migrating Southern Hemisphere Westerlies (SHWs) on Southern Ocean circulation and Antarctic ice‐sheet dynamics. We suggest that southerly shifts in winds may have significantly impacted the sub‐polar gyres, inducing pervasive warming (0.2–0.8 °C in the upper 1200 m) adjacent to sectors of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS), which due to their geometries and connectivity to the Southern Ocean are highly sensitive to ocean forcing. We conclude that the EAIS potentially made a substantial, hitherto unsuspected, contribution to interglacial sea levels, and given 21st‐century projections in the Southern Annular Mode and associated SHW migration, we highlight how pervasive circum‐Antarctic warming may threaten EAIS stability.