Spatial and temporal characteristics of tropical cyclone strikes in the northeastern Pacific Basin between San Diego, California and Las Peñitas, Nicaragua

This study analyses 52 (1966–2017) years of northeastern Pacific (NEP) tropical cyclones (TCs) and uses track data from the National Hurricane Center's HURDAT2 and a TC size model to determine TC strikes at 54 locations along the Pacific Coast of North America between San Diego, California, and Las Peñitas, Nicaragua. An average TC strike model is used whereby tropical storms, hurricanes, and major hurricane strikes are determined for each location. These data are used to construct time series and calculate TC return periods for each location. Results indicate varying patterns of strike frequency across the region, with hot spots along the southwestern coast of Mexico (centred on Manzanillo, Colima), on the southern tip of Baja California Sur, and on Isla Socorro, part of the Revillagigedo Island chain. These regions had TC return periods of 2 years or less while locations in Sonora, Central America, San Diego, and northern Baja California had return periods of 52 years or greater. In addition, results indicate varying patterns of activity in the region. For example, locations in Baja California Sur are shown to have been struck more frequently in recent years, while locations across the Gulf of California in northwestern Mexico have been struck less frequently. Understanding coastal risk in the NEP will be relevant to coastal planners, local governments, tourism agencies, and investors in this region.