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Long‐term variability and trends in meteorological droughts in Western Europe (1851–2018)
Author(s) -
VicenteSerrano Sergio M.,
DomínguezCastro Fernando,
Murphy Conor,
Hannaford Jamie,
Reig Fergus,
PeñaAngulo Dhais,
Tramblay Yves,
Trigo Ricardo M.,
Mac Donald Neil,
Luna M. Yolanda,
Mc Carthy Mark,
Van der Schrier Gerard,
Turco Marco,
Camuffo Dario,
Noguera Ivan,
GarcíaHerrera Ricardo,
Becherini Francesca,
Della Valle Antonio,
TomasBurguera Miquel,
El Kenawy Ahmed
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
international journal of climatology
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.58
H-Index - 166
eISSN - 1097-0088
pISSN - 0899-8418
DOI - 10.1002/joc.6719
Subject(s) - climatology , precipitation , western europe , trend analysis , environmental science , homogeneous , geography , term (time) , climate change , spatial variability , climatic variability , period (music) , physical geography , european union , meteorology , geology , oceanography , physics , statistics , mathematics , quantum mechanics , machine learning , computer science , business , economic policy , thermodynamics , acoustics
We analysed long‐term variability and trends in meteorological droughts across Western Europe using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). Precipitation data from 199 stations spanning the period 1851–2018 were employed, following homogenisation, to derive SPI‐3 and SPI‐12 series for each station, together with indices on drought duration and severity. Results reveal a general absence of statistically significant long‐term trends in the study domain, with the exception of significant trends at some stations, generally covering short periods. The largest decreasing trends in SPI‐3 (i.e., increasing drought conditions) were found for summer in the British and Irish Isles. In general, drought episodes experienced in the last two or three decades have precedents during the last 170·years, emphasizing the importance of long records for assessing change. The main characteristic of drought variability in Western Europe is its strong spatial diversity, with regions exhibiting a homogeneous temporal evolution. Notably, the temporal variability of drought in Western Europe is more dominant than long‐term trends. This suggests that long‐term drought trends cannot be confirmed in Western Europe using precipitation records alone. This study provides a long‐term regional assessment of drought variability in Western Europe, which can contribute to better understanding of regional climate change during the past two centuries.