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Drought risk assessment for future climate projections in the Nakdong River Basin, Korea
Author(s) -
Kim JongSuk,
Park SeoYeon,
Hong HyunPyo,
Chen Jie,
Choi SiJung,
Kim TaeWoong,
Lee JooHeon
Publication year - 2020
Publication title -
international journal of climatology
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.58
H-Index - 166
eISSN - 1097-0088
pISSN - 0899-8418
DOI - 10.1002/joc.6473
Subject(s) - environmental science , climate change , climatology , vulnerability (computing) , drainage basin , water resource management , agriculture , risk assessment , climate extremes , climate risk , population , geography , ecology , geology , computer security , cartography , archaeology , computer science , biology , demography , sociology
To prepare for the potential of extreme drought caused by climate change, both physical and socioeconomic factors need to be considered. In this study, three general circulation models were selected: IPSL‐CM5A‐LR, HadGEM2‐AO, and CanESM2 as representative scenarios for severe, moderate, and relatively weak droughts to assess the risk of droughts for future climate projections. Drought hazard was estimated using the meteorological drought index to determine drought frequency, severity, and probability. Population density, agricultural land area, and municipal, agricultural, and industrial water demand were used as drought vulnerability indicators. The Analytical Hierarchy Process technique was applied to determine the weight of each indicator, and the integrated drought risk was then estimated. HadGEM2‐AO and CanESM2 projected that drought risk would be reduced in the far future. IPSL‐CM5A‐LR projected an increased drought risk in the near and far future in the downstream area of the Nakdong River Basin. This study presented a quantitative approach to identify high drought‐risk areas that should be the focus of future extreme drought assessments and mid‐ to long‐term drought mitigation strategies.