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Quantifying relationships between environmental factors and power dissipation on the most prolific days in the largest tornado “outbreaks”
Author(s) -
Schroder Zoe,
Elsner James B.
Publication year - 2020
Publication title -
international journal of climatology
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.58
H-Index - 166
eISSN - 1097-0088
pISSN - 0899-8418
DOI - 10.1002/joc.6388
Subject(s) - tornado , environmental science , convection , supercell , dissipation , climatology , outbreak , atmospheric sciences , meteorology , geography , geology , physics , thermodynamics , biology , virology
Studies show an increasing tendency for tornadoes in the United States to occur in larger outbreaks. To shed light on the reason for this, the authors use a regression model to quantify the relationship between convective environmental variables and accumulated tornado power (ATP). They consider only days with many tornadoes that occur as part of an outbreak. Results show an average upward trend in ATP at 5% ([2.5%, 12%], 95% uncertainty interval) per year. ATP increases by 125% for every 10 m⋅s −1 increase in bulk shear (on average)and by 33% for every 1,000 J⋅kg −1 increase in convective available potential energy holding the other variables constant. Changes in bulk shear, which has the largest effect on ATP, might help explain the documented changes in tornado activity.