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Effects of different statistical distribution and threshold criteria in extreme precipitation modelling over global land areas
Author(s) -
Wang Zhenni,
Wen Xin,
Lei Xiaohui,
Tan Qiaofeng,
Fang Guohua,
Zhang Xinyi
Publication year - 2019
Publication title -
international journal of climatology
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.58
H-Index - 166
eISSN - 1097-0088
pISSN - 0899-8418
DOI - 10.1002/joc.6305
Subject(s) - generalized pareto distribution , precipitation , climatology , percentile , arid , environmental science , extreme value theory , generalized extreme value distribution , spatial distribution , distribution (mathematics) , central asia , geography , physical geography , meteorology , geology , statistics , mathematics , mathematical analysis , paleontology , remote sensing
Abstract In statistical modelling of extreme precipitation, most of previous studies were proposed for some certain regions, the effects of diverse extreme distribution and threshold remain unclear on a global scale. In this study, we evaluated the performance of different extreme distribution and threshold across the global land areas, and proposed the optimal criteria in distribution and threshold determination for monthly extreme precipitation modelling. The performance of the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution and generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) models were compared and the applicability of GPD models with thresholds determined by different percentiles in each grid was analysed. The results show that the GPD model is more suitable than the GEV model for monthly extreme precipitation, and the threshold over global land areas is likely to be associated with the spatial distribution of annual precipitation magnitude. The 97–99th percentile is most applicable to arid regions (e.g., the northern edge of North America, central Asia, North Africa, southwest Asia, central South America). The 93–96th percentile is most applicable to semi‐arid and semi‐humid regions (e.g., eastern North America, a strip region in northern Eurasia, and inland semi‐arid areas in Asia). The 90–92 percentile is most applicable to humid regions (e.g., central and southern North America, most areas in South America, Eurasia [except central Eurasia], southern and central Africa).