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Effect of hydroclimatological teleconnections on the watershed‐scale drought predictability in the southeastern United States
Author(s) -
Sehgal Vinit,
Sridhar Venkataramana
Publication year - 2018
Publication title -
international journal of climatology
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.58
H-Index - 166
eISSN - 1097-0088
pISSN - 0899-8418
DOI - 10.1002/joc.5439
Subject(s) - environmental science , teleconnection , climatology , watershed , evapotranspiration , predictability , water balance , precipitation , streamflow , soil and water assessment tool , context (archaeology) , climate change , hydrology (agriculture) , drainage basin , geography , meteorology , el niño southern oscillation , geology , oceanography , ecology , physics , geotechnical engineering , cartography , archaeology , quantum mechanics , machine learning , computer science , biology
ABSTRACT Large‐scale atmospheric circulation patterns have a strong influence on hydrologic variability in the southeastern United States (SEUS). These climatic indices are often linked with anomalous climatic conditions and thus can be useful to forecast either water surplus or deficit conditions over the region. This study provides an assessment of the watershed‐scale influence of hydroclimatological teleconnections in the context of drought predictability. The interrelationship between several climate indices is assessed with the monthly percentiles of soil water storage (SW), precipitation (PCP), surface run‐off (SURQ), and potential evapotranspiration (PET) for 50 watersheds in the South Atlantic Gulf region of the SEUS. The hydrologic variables are simulated by implementing SWAT models for each watershed at a HUC‐12 resolution for a period of January 1982 through December 2013. The study highlights the strong correlation between the climate indices and watershed‐scale hydrologic variables and provides important insights on the effect of seasonality and the dynamics of water balance components on the predictability of drought at watershed‐scale. Among all hydrologic variables evaluated, soil moisture shows a stronger relationship with the climate indices compared to PCP, SW, and SURQ. The interrelationship between watershed hydrology and climate indices is found to be stronger during fall (September–November) and winter seasons (December–February) with high correlation of SW and PCP with the climate indices, especially in the Carolinas, Georgia, and parts of Florida. Simulated SW corresponds strongly with the Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) in terms of its response to climate indices, indicating that SW can be an effective predictor of drought in the region.