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A case study of possible future summer convective precipitation over the UK and Europe from a regional climate projection
Author(s) -
Gadian Alan M.,
Blyth Alan M.,
Bruyere Cindy L.,
Burton Ralph R.,
Done James M.,
Groves James,
Holland Greg,
Mobbs Stephen D.,
Pozo Jutta Thielendel,
Tye Mari R.,
Warner James L.
Publication year - 2018
Publication title -
international journal of climatology
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.58
H-Index - 166
eISSN - 1097-0088
pISSN - 0899-8418
DOI - 10.1002/joc.5336
Subject(s) - precipitation , climatology , mesoscale meteorology , environmental science , climate model , forcing (mathematics) , convection , climate change , atmospheric sciences , meteorology , geology , geography , oceanography
This article examines the changes in summer convective precipitation over Europe using a convection‐permitting model. It concludes that future average precipitation rate per event increases, dry periods extend and wet events shorten. Convection‐permitting solutions capture about ten times as many short heavy precipitation events as convection parameterized simulations, and both convection approaches show approximately 20% increase in their contribution to precipitation. Summer (JJA): changes in dry spell duration, for the high resolution ∼ O (3 km), domain, d02, calculations plot. The changes are produced by subtracting the 1990–1995 from the 2031–2036 average values at each pixel.