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Assessment on historical cyclone tracks in the Bay of Bengal, east coast of India
Author(s) -
Sahoo Bishnupriya,
Bhaskaran Prasad K.
Publication year - 2016
Publication title -
international journal of climatology
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.58
H-Index - 166
eISSN - 1097-0088
pISSN - 0899-8418
DOI - 10.1002/joc.4331
Subject(s) - climatology , tropical cyclone , cyclone (programming language) , bengal , cyclogenesis , east coast , tropical cyclone scales , bay , storm surge , monsoon , structural basin , oceanography , geology , extratropical cyclone , rainband , storm , environmental science , geography , field programmable gate array , computer science , computer hardware , paleontology
The Bay of Bengal (BoB) basin in the North Indian Ocean reports the highest number of tropical cyclones, and the frequency is much higher almost five times compared with the Arabian Sea (AS). Semi‐enclosed nature of this basin in conjunction with its funnel shape steers the cyclone pathway striking the land. Historical reports signify that most deadly cyclones with highest catastrophe and death tolls occurred in this basin. The four maritime states located in the east coast of India are highly vulnerable to tropical cyclones. Hence, there is a need to understand the risk factors attributed from extreme winds, storm surge, and associated coastal inundation. Historical data signify higher frequency of post‐monsoon cyclones compared with pre‐monsoon cyclones in the BoB. This study aims to develop a synthetic track or the most probable cyclone track for each state located along the east coast of India. The synthetic track is a general guidance for numerical models, with utility to evaluate and assess the risk factors along coastal belts. This study also deals with aspects on frequency and cyclogenesis locations in the BoB based on analysis from historical data. Results for decadal scale variability signify that in the present decade, the eastern BoB is quite conducive for cyclogenesis. In this region, oceanic thermal field exhibits a warming trend, and found to extend up to water depth of 600 m. In addition, this study also evaluates the energy metrics such as Power Dissipation Index ( PDI ), and Accumulated Cyclone Energy ( ACE ) for tropical cyclones that occurred during past four decades in the BoB. The results signify that PDI for tropical cyclones in the present decade is six times higher when compared with the past. The study has practical applications for mapping coastal vulnerability in a changing climate.