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Long‐term trends of the ‘Koshava’ wind during the period 1949–2010
Author(s) -
Romanić Djordje,
Ćurić Mladjen,
Jovičić Ilija,
Lompar Miloš
Publication year - 2015
Publication title -
international journal of climatology
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.58
H-Index - 166
eISSN - 1097-0088
pISSN - 0899-8418
DOI - 10.1002/joc.3981
Subject(s) - maximum sustained wind , environmental science , wind speed , climatology , wind shear , wind power , meteorology , wind direction , prevailing winds , orography , wind profile power law , wind gradient , geography , geology , precipitation , engineering , electrical engineering
In this study, a comprehensive analysis of long‐term trends of the Koshava wind during the period between 1949 and 2010 is carried out. Koshava is a strong wind that blows from southeast quadrant over Serbia, Bulgaria and Romania. The Siberian high and West‐Mediterranean cyclones, together with the orography of the eastern Balkan, are the main drivers of the Koshava wind. The trend analyses are performed on wind data sets from five synoptic weather stations, all situated in the region where the Koshava wind is fully developed. Koshava wind speeds are divided into two categories: (1) all wind speeds and (2) wind speeds above 5 ms −1 . Two homogeneity tests are used to inspect the quality of wind speed and wind direction time series. The Mann–Kendall test and Sen's slope estimator are used to analyze trends of the Koshava wind speeds and the annual number of days with the Koshava wind. Statistically significant negative trends of the Koshava wind speeds and wind activity are observed at all five weather stations and are more pronounced for wind speeds above 5 ms −1 . The negative trends of the Koshava wind are mostly related to the changes in the synoptic circulation, temperature and weakening of the Siberian high and West‐Mediterranean cyclones. It is shown that the observed decline of the Koshava wind has a significant impact on reducing the wind energy potential in the region.