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Statistical evaluation of CMIP5 climate change model simulations for the Ethiopian highlands
Author(s) -
Jury Mark R.
Publication year - 2015
Publication title -
international journal of climatology
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.58
H-Index - 166
eISSN - 1097-0088
pISSN - 0899-8418
DOI - 10.1002/joc.3960
Subject(s) - coupled model intercomparison project , climatology , environmental science , climate change , representative concentration pathways , climate model , annual cycle , common spatial pattern , statistics , geology , mathematics , oceanography
This study compares Climate Research Unit version 3 reference observations in the period 1980–2009 with Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Five ( CMIP5 )‐simulated climate patterns and trends over the Ethiopian highlands (7– 14N , 36– 40E ) using the rcp6 scenario. Three metrics are used in a stepwise statistical evaluation: (1) mean annual cycle of area‐averaged rainfall ( R ) and maximum temperature ( T x ), (2) spatial pattern of R and T x over Ethiopia and (3) interannual (1.5–6 years) R and T x variability. Those models passing the first step by simulating a unimodal annual cycle reaching 28 °C in March–May and 9 mm day −1 in July–August are then evaluated for their ability to represent the cool, wet ‘island’ pattern over the highest elevation. Finally, the models' ability to follow observed area‐averaged R and T x anomalies from 1980 to 2009 is analysed by correlation. The stepwise metrics are designed to improve confidence in the use of CMIP5 models for future resource management and development planning across the Ethiopian highlands. The models with optimal performance in the most categories include the HAD , CCSM and GFDL .