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Climate change, potential evapotranspiration and moisture availability in the mediterranean basin
Author(s) -
Palutikof J. P.,
Goodess C. M.,
Guo X.
Publication year - 1994
Publication title -
international journal of climatology
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.58
H-Index - 166
eISSN - 1097-0088
pISSN - 0899-8418
DOI - 10.1002/joc.3370140804
Subject(s) - evapotranspiration , environmental science , mediterranean climate , precipitation , climate change , climatology , mean radiant temperature , moisture , mediterranean basin , structural basin , atmospheric sciences , meteorology , ecology , geology , geography , paleontology , biology
Simple methods for estimating potential evapotranspiration, requiring only temperature and day length data, are compared by reference to the results from the Penman method. A modification of the Blaney and Criddle method, in which the c parameter is calculated from seasonal regression equations with the mean monthly temperature as the independent variable, is proposed and tested. It is found to work sufficiently well in the area of interest, the Mediterranean Basin. For a network of 248 Mediterranean temperature stations, present‐day seasonal mean potential evapotranspiration is estimated by this method. Using the results from four equilibrium‐mode general circulation models, seasonal mean scenarios of potential evapotranspiration per 1°C rise in global mean temperature caused by the enhanced greenhouse effect are presented. Comparison of scenarios of the change in potential evapotranspiration and scenarios of the change in precipitation indicates an unfavourable shift in moisture availability due to the enhanced greenhouse effect, throughout the Mediterranean region.