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Early 20 th century Arctic warming in retrospect
Author(s) -
Wood Kevin R.,
Overland James E.
Publication year - 2010
Publication title -
international journal of climatology
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.58
H-Index - 166
eISSN - 1097-0088
pISSN - 0899-8418
DOI - 10.1002/joc.1973
Subject(s) - climatology , anomaly (physics) , forcing (mathematics) , environmental science , climate change , atmospheric circulation , sea surface temperature , arctic , geology , oceanography , physics , condensed matter physics
The major early 20 th century climatic fluctuation (∼1920–1940) has been the subject of scientific enquiry from the time it was detected in the 1920s. The papers of scientists who studied the event first‐hand have faded into obscurity but their insights are relevant today. We review this event through a rediscovery of early research and new assessments of the instrumental record. Much of the inter‐annual to decadal scale variability in surface air temperature (SAT) anomaly patterns and related ecosystem effects in the Arctic and elsewhere can be attributed to the superposition of leading modes of variability in the atmospheric circulation. Meridional circulation patterns were an important factor in the high latitudes of the North Atlantic during the early climatic fluctuation. Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies that appeared during this period were congruent with low‐frequency variability in the climate system but were themselves most likely the result of anomalous forcing by the atmosphere. The high‐resolution data necessary to verify this hypothesis are lacking, but the consistency of multiple lines of evidence provides strong support. Our findings indicate that early climatic fluctuation is best interpreted as a large but random climate excursion imposed on top of the steadily rising global mean temperature associated with anthropogenic forcing. Copyright © 2009 Royal Meteorological Society