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Climate change and the precipitation variations in the northwestern Himalaya: 1866–2006
Author(s) -
Bhutiyani M. R.,
Kale V. S.,
Pawar N. J.
Publication year - 2009
Publication title -
international journal of climatology
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.58
H-Index - 166
eISSN - 1097-0088
pISSN - 0899-8418
DOI - 10.1002/joc.1920
Subject(s) - climatology , precipitation , teleconnection , environmental science , north atlantic oscillation , snow , monsoon , climate change , el niño southern oscillation , atmospheric sciences , geography , geology , meteorology , oceanography
Using available instrumental records, this paper examines the variation of precipitation from 1866 to 2006 in the northwestern Himalaya (NWH). The study indicates no trend in the winter precipitation but significant decreasing trend in the monsoon precipitation during the study period. Periodicities on a multi‐decadal scale (29–34 years and 58–64 years) obtained in power spectrum analyses point towards epochal behaviour in the precipitation series. Analyses of the temperature data show significant increasing trends in annual temperature in all three stations in the NWH during the data period. Warming effect is particularly noteworthy during the winter season. Negative relationships between mean winter air temperature and snowfall amounts recorded at different meteorological stations in this period reveal strong effect of rising temperatures on the decreasing snowfall component in total winter precipitation, reducing effective duration of winter on the windward side of the Pir Panjal Himalayan Range. The study also shows influence of global teleconnections [North‐Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) during winter months and Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) during the monsoon months] on precipitation fluctuations in the NWH. The teleconnections that appear to exist between the precipitation and the temperature until the late 1960s seem to have weakened considerably in the last three decades. This may be ascribed to the diminishing effect of the natural factors such as quasi‐biennial oscillations (QBO), El Niño Southern Oscillations (ENSO), double sunspot cycles (Hale), etc., in this period. Role of increasing concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere cannot be ruled out. Copyright © 2009 Royal Meteorological Society