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An assessment of present and future climate in the Mackenzie Delta and the near‐shore Beaufort Sea region of Canada
Author(s) -
Bonsal Barrie R.,
Kochtubajda Bohdan
Publication year - 2009
Publication title -
international journal of climatology
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.58
H-Index - 166
eISSN - 1097-0088
pISSN - 0899-8418
DOI - 10.1002/joc.1812
Subject(s) - beaufort sea , precipitation , climatology , environmental science , shore , latitude , arctic , climate change , beaufort scale , global warming , climate model , sea ice , oceanography , physical geography , geography , geology , meteorology , geodesy
Climate change is projected to significantly alter physical, biological, and socio‐economic systems, particularly in high latitudes. The Mackenzie Delta and near‐shore Beaufort Sea region of Canada is one such area that has already experienced considerable changes in climate and associated impacts. It has also been identified as highly sensitive due to recent oil and gas exploration and extraction. All Global Climate Models (GCMs) are projecting further changes to the Arctic climate, however, regional‐scale variations are not well documented. Using seven international GCMs, this study quantifies 18 future (2010–2039) temperature and precipitation projections over the Beaufort region on annual and seasonal scales. Several observed gridded temperature and precipitation datasets are also compared. Observed climate comparisons reveal substantial variability, especially for precipitation. All future projections demonstrate temperature and for the most part, precipitation increases, however, there is a considerable range on both temporal and spatial scales. For temperature, autumn has the greatest change (+1.4 to + 3.3 °C), followed by winter (+1.2 to + 2.6 °C), spring (+0.8 to + 2.4 °C), and summer (+0.2 to + 1.6 °C). Spatially, the ocean warms more than the land during the cold season, and the eastern Beaufort is warmer than the western region. Future precipitation shows annual increases averaging between 4.8 and 10.7%. Unlike temperature, seasonal precipitation changes do not vary greatly although slight decreases are projected in some scenarios. Recent (1991–2005) temperature changes at Inuvik, Northwest Territories, indicate that Beaufort‐region warming is occurring faster than projected by the majority of GCMs. However, precipitation has not experienced these rapid changes. In terms of extremes, climate‐change projections revealed a substantial shift in the temperature distribution toward fewer very cold months and several more warm months. Extremely high monthly precipitation amounts are also projected to increase. This study can be considered an important step towards addressing future climate‐change impact assessments in Arctic regions. Copyright © 2008 Crown in the right of Canada. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.