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Simulated changes in active/break spells during the Indian summer monsoon due to enhanced CO 2 concentrations: assessment from selected coupled atmosphere–ocean global climate models
Author(s) -
Mandke Sujata K.,
Sahai A. K.,
Shinde M. A.,
Joseph Susmitha,
Chattopadhyay R.
Publication year - 2006
Publication title -
international journal of climatology
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.58
H-Index - 166
eISSN - 1097-0088
pISSN - 0899-8418
DOI - 10.1002/joc.1440
Subject(s) - climatology , precipitation , environmental science , climate change , monsoon , climate model , atmospheric sciences , atmosphere (unit) , standard deviation , meteorology , geography , geology , oceanography , mathematics , statistics
The simulations by ten coupled GCMs under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Report‐4 are used to study the implication of possible global climate change on active/break spells of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM). The validation of the mean daily cycle of the summer monsoon precipitation over the Indian core region and the spatial pattern of the ISM precipitation climatology with observation suggest that six models simulate fairly well, whereas four models differ from observation. Thus, the identification of active/break spells is confined to six models. The sensitivity to climate change has been assessed from two experiments, namely, 1% per year CO 2 increase to doubling and 1% per year CO 2 increase to quadrupling. The changes in the daily mean cycle and the standard deviation of precipitation, frequency, and duration of active/break spells in future climate change are uncertain among the models and at times among two experiments. The break composite precipitation anomalies strengthen and spread moderately (significantly) in the doubled (quadrupled) CO 2 experiment. Copyright © 2006 Royal Meteorological Society