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Estimation of the basic reproduction number, average incubation time, asymptomatic infection rate, and case fatality rate for COVID‐19: Meta‐analysis and sensitivity analysis
Author(s) -
He Wenqing,
Yi Grace Y.,
Zhu Yayuan
Publication year - 2020
Publication title -
journal of medical virology
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.782
H-Index - 121
eISSN - 1096-9071
pISSN - 0146-6615
DOI - 10.1002/jmv.26041
Subject(s) - asymptomatic , case fatality rate , incubation period , covid-19 , medicine , virology , basic reproduction number , meta analysis , incubation , biology , disease , infectious disease (medical specialty) , epidemiology , population , environmental health , biochemistry
The coronavirus disease‐2019 (COVID‐19) has been found to be caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS‐CoV‐2). However, comprehensive knowledge of COVID‐19 remains incomplete and many important features are still unknown. This manuscript conducts a meta‐analysis and a sensitivity study to answer the questions: What is the basic reproduction number? How long is the incubation time of the disease on average? What portion of infections are asymptomatic? And ultimately, what is the case fatality rate? Our studies estimate the basic reproduction number to be 3.15 with the 95% CI (2.41‐3.90), the average incubation time to be 5.08 days with the 95% CI (4.77‐5.39) (in day), the asymptomatic infection rate to be 46% with the 95% CI (18.48%‐73.60%), and the case fatality rate to be 2.72% with 95% CI (1.29%‐4.16%) where asymptomatic infections are accounted for.