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The impact of abrupt suspension of solar radiation management (termination effect) in experiment G2 of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP)
Author(s) -
Jones Andy,
Haywood Jim M.,
Alterskjær Kari,
Boucher Olivier,
Cole Jason N. S.,
Curry Charles L.,
Irvine Peter J.,
Ji Duoying,
Kravitz Ben,
Egill Kristjánsson Jón,
Moore John C.,
Niemeier Ulrike,
Robock Alan,
Schmidt Hauke,
Singh Balwinder,
Tilmes Simone,
Watanabe Shingo,
Yoon JinHo
Publication year - 2013
Publication title -
journal of geophysical research: atmospheres
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
eISSN - 2169-8996
pISSN - 2169-897X
DOI - 10.1002/jgrd.50762
Subject(s) - environmental science , climate change , precipitation , climatology , coupled model intercomparison project , latitude , atmospheric sciences , global warming , mean radiant temperature , arctic , productivity , greenhouse gas , climate model , meteorology , oceanography , geography , geology , geodesy , economics , macroeconomics
We have examined changes in climate which result from the sudden termination of geoengineering after 50 years of offsetting a 1% per annum increase in CO 2 concentrations by a reduction of solar radiation, as simulated by 11 different climate models in experiment G2 of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project. The models agree on a rapid increase in global‐mean temperature following termination accompanied by increases in global‐mean precipitation rate and decreases in sea‐ice cover. There is no agreement on the impact of geoengineering termination on the rate of change of global‐mean plant net primary productivity. There is a considerable degree of consensus for the geographical distribution of temperature change following termination, with faster warming at high latitudes and over land. There is also considerable agreement regarding the distribution of reductions in Arctic sea‐ice, but less so for the Antarctic. There is much less agreement regarding the patterns of change in precipitation and net primary productivity, with a greater degree of consensus at higher latitudes.