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Instrumental temperature series in eastern and central China back to the nineteenth century
Author(s) -
Cao Lijuan,
Zhao Ping,
Yan Zhongwei,
Jones Phil,
Zhu Yani,
Yu Yu,
Tang Guoli
Publication year - 2013
Publication title -
journal of geophysical research: atmospheres
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
eISSN - 2169-8996
pISSN - 2169-897X
DOI - 10.1002/jgrd.50615
Subject(s) - homogeneity (statistics) , china , series (stratigraphy) , geography , climatology , environmental science , physical geography , time series , statistics , mathematics , geology , archaeology , paleontology
In this study, we bring together different source data sets and use quality control, interpolation, and homogeneity methods to construct a set of homogenized monthly mean surface air temperature (SAT) series for 18 stations in eastern and central China from the late nineteenth century. Missing values are statistically interpolated, and cross validation is used to assess the accuracy of the interpolation approaches. Results show that the errors of interpolation are small, and the interpolated values are statistically acceptable. Multiple homogeneity methods and all available metadata are used to assess the consistency of the time series and then to develop adjustments when necessary. Thirty‐three homogeneity breakpoints are detected in the 18 stations, and the time series is adjusted to the latest segment of the data series. The adjusted annual mean SAT generally shows a range of trends of 1.0° to 4.2°C/100 years in northeastern and southeastern China and a range of trends of −0.3° to 1.0°C/100 years in central China near 30°N. Compared to the adjusted time series, the unadjusted time series underestimates the warming trend during the past 100 years. The regional and annual mean SAT over eastern and central China agrees well with estimates from a much denser station network over this region of China since 1951 and shows a warming trend of 1.52°C/100 years during 1909–2010.