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Global precipitation trends in 1900–2005 from a reconstruction and coupled model simulations
Author(s) -
Ren Li,
Arkin Phillip,
Smith Thomas M.,
Shen Samuel S.P.
Publication year - 2013
Publication title -
journal of geophysical research: atmospheres
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
eISSN - 2169-8996
pISSN - 2169-897X
DOI - 10.1002/jgrd.50212
Subject(s) - coupled model intercomparison project , precipitation , climatology , equator , climate model , environmental science , climate change , magnitude (astronomy) , meteorology , geology , latitude , geography , oceanography , geodesy , physics , astronomy
The trends of global precipitation in 1900–2005 are evaluated using a historical precipitation reconstruction and coupled model simulations, Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3. A significant increasing trend in the global oceanic precipitation is identified in both the reconstruction and models. The trend from the reconstructed ocean precipitation is 0.04 mm day −1 over 100a (100 years) and is about twice that of the mean of all models. Over land, the spatial patterns of the trends from both the reconstruction and the models are similar to those shown in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report. Over the ocean, both reconstruction and models show positive trends in the equatorial and subpolar regions and negative trends over the subtropics. However, the trend magnitude and the locations of the trend peaks are different near the equator (10°S to 10°N) between the reconstruction and the models. CMIP5 future simulations for the global mean project a continuing and stronger precipitation trend in the 21st century than the 20th century.