Open AccessThe natural history of low‐grade dysplasia in Barrett's esophagus and risk factors for progression
Author(s) -
Hussein Mohamed,
Sehgal Vinay,
Sami Sarmed,
Bassett Paul,
Sweis Rami,
Graham David,
Telese Andrea,
Morris Danielle,
RodriguezJusto Manuel,
Jansen Marnix,
Novelli Marco,
Banks Matthew,
Lovat Laurence B,
Haidry Rehan
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
jgh open
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.546
H-Index - 8
ISSN - 2397-9070
DOI - 10.1002/jgh3.12625
Subject(s) - medicine , dysplasia , barrett's esophagus , esophagus , gastroenterology , incidence (geometry) , adenocarcinoma , cancer , physics , optics
Background and Aim Barrett's esophagus is associated with increased risk of esophageal adenocarcinoma. The optimal management of low‐grade dysplasia arising in Barrett's esophagus remains controversial. We performed a retrospective study from a tertiary referral center for Barrett's esophagus neoplasia, to estimate time to progression to high‐grade dysplasia/esophageal adenocarcinoma in patients with confirmed low‐grade dysplasia compared with those with downstaged low‐grade dysplasia from index presentation and referral. We analyzed risk factors for progression. Methods We analyzed consecutive patients with low‐grade dysplasia in Barrett's esophagus referred to a single tertiary center (July 2006–October 2018). Biopsies were reviewed by at least two expert pathologists. Results One hundred and forty‐seven patients referred with suspected low‐grade dysplasia were included. Forty‐two of 133 (32%) of all external referrals had confirmed low‐grade dysplasia after expert histopathology review. Multivariable analysis showed nodularity at index endoscopy ( P < 0.05), location of dysplasia ( P = 0.05), and endoscopic therapy after referral ( P = 0.09) were associated with progression risk. At 5 years, 59% of patients with confirmed low‐grade dysplasia had not progressed versus 74% of patients in the cohort downstaged to non‐dysplastic Barrett's esophagus. Conclusion Our data show variability in the diagnosis of low‐grade dysplasia. The cumulative incidence of progression and time to progression varied across subgroups. Confirmed low‐grade dysplasia had a shorter progression time compared with the downstaged group. Nodularity at index endoscopy and multifocal low‐grade dysplasia were significant risk factors for progression. It is important to differentiate these high‐risk subgroups so that decisions on surveillance/endotherapy can be personalized.