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Is yield curve predicting a US recession in 2020?
Author(s) -
Tokic Damir
Publication year - 2019
Publication title -
journal of corporate accounting and finance
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
eISSN - 1097-0053
pISSN - 1044-8136
DOI - 10.1002/jcaf.22400
Subject(s) - recession , yield curve , flashing , yield (engineering) , economics , keynesian economics , sign (mathematics) , econometrics , monetary economics , interest rate , mathematics , chemistry , physics , thermodynamics , mathematical analysis
The yield curve spread has predicted every US recession. As of mid‐2019, the inverted yield curve spread is flashing a warning sign about a possible US recession in 2020. This article explains the yield curve spread, and discusses the possible 2020 recession triggers.