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Prediction of hip fractures from pelvic radiographs: The study of osteoporotic fractures
Author(s) -
Glüer ClausC.,
Cummings Steven R.,
Pressman Alice,
Li Jiao,
Glüer Kathrin,
Faulkner Kenneth G.,
Grampp Stephan,
Genant Harry K.
Publication year - 1994
Publication title -
journal of bone and mineral research
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.882
H-Index - 241
eISSN - 1523-4681
pISSN - 0884-0431
DOI - 10.1002/jbmr.5650090512
Subject(s) - medicine , radiography , femoral neck , hip fracture , confidence interval , osteoporosis , receiver operating characteristic , orthodontics , standard deviation , bone density , nuclear medicine , surgery , mathematics , statistics
To determine whether simple measurements made on conventional radiographs of the hip could predict hip fractures, we obtained pelvic radiographs on 9704 white women age 65 or older. We analyzed the radiographs of all 162 women who subsequently suffered a hip fracture and 162 randomly selected women who did not. Adjusting for age, four measurements independently predicted hip fracture: reduced thickness of the femoral shaft cortex (odds ratio 1.7 per standard deviation; 95% confidence interval 1.2, 2.3) and of the femoral neck cortex (1.4 per standard deviation; 1.0, 1.9), reduction in an index of tensile trabeculae (2.0 per unit; 1.4, 2.9), and wider trochanteric region (1.4 per standard deviation; 1.0, 2.0). The combination of these four measurements predicted hip fracture at least as strongly as did measurement of bone density of the femoral neck (areas of the receiver‐operating characteristic curve = 0.81 and 0.80, respectively). We conclude that simple measurements made on pelvic radiographs predict hip fractures as well as bone density of the hip.