Open AccessClimate and carbon cycle changes from 1850 to 2100 in MPI‐ESM simulations for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5
Author(s) -
Giorgetta Marco A.,
Jungclaus Johann,
Reick Christian H.,
Legutke Stephanie,
Bader Jürgen,
Böttinger Michael,
Brovkin Victor,
Crueger Traute,
Esch Monika,
Fieg Kerstin,
Glushak Ksenia,
Gayler Veronika,
Haak Helmuth,
Hollweg HeinzDieter,
Ilyina Tatiana,
Kinne Stefan,
Kornblueh Luis,
Matei Daniela,
Mauritsen Thorsten,
Mikolajewicz Uwe,
Mueller Wolfgang,
Notz Dirk,
Pithan Felix,
Raddatz Thomas,
Rast Sebastian,
Redler Rene,
Roeckner Erich,
Schmidt Hauke,
Schnur Reiner,
Segschneider Joachim,
Six Katharina D.,
Stockhause Martina,
Timmreck Claudia,
Wegner Jörg,
Widmann Heinrich,
Wieners KarlH.,
Claussen Martin,
Marotzke Jochem,
Stevens Bjorn
Publication year - 2013
Publication title -
journal of advances in modeling earth systems
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 3.03
H-Index - 58
ISSN - 1942-2466
DOI - 10.1002/jame.20038
Subject(s) - coupled model intercomparison project , environmental science , climatology , climate model , initialization , climate change , representative concentration pathways , atmospheric sciences , climate sensitivity , precipitation , global warming , radiative forcing , greenhouse gas , forcing (mathematics) , carbon cycle , carbon sink , meteorology , ecosystem , oceanography , geology , computer science , ecology , physics , biology , programming language
The new Max‐Planck‐Institute Earth System Model (MPI‐ESM) is used in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) in a series of climate change experiments for either idealized CO 2 ‐only forcing or forcings based on observations and the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. The paper gives an overview of the model configurations, experiments related forcings, and initialization procedures and presents results for the simulated changes in climate and carbon cycle. It is found that the climate feedback depends on the global warming and possibly the forcing history. The global warming from climatological 1850 conditions to 2080–2100 ranges from 1.5°C under the RCP2.6 scenario to 4.4°C under the RCP8.5 scenario. Over this range, the patterns of temperature and precipitation change are nearly independent of the global warming. The model shows a tendency to reduce the ocean heat uptake efficiency toward a warmer climate, and hence acceleration in warming in the later years. The precipitation sensitivity can be as high as 2.5% K −1 if the CO 2 concentration is constant, or as small as 1.6% K −1 , if the CO 2 concentration is increasing. The oceanic uptake of anthropogenic carbon increases over time in all scenarios, being smallest in the experiment forced by RCP2.6 and largest in that for RCP8.5. The land also serves as a net carbon sink in all scenarios, predominantly in boreal regions. The strong tropical carbon sources found in the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 experiments are almost absent in the RCP4.5 experiment, which can be explained by reforestation in the RCP4.5 scenario.