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Model simplification and variable selection: A replication of the UK inflation model by Hendry (2001)
Author(s) -
Błażejowski Marcin,
Kufel Paweł,
Kwiatkowski Jacek
Publication year - 2020
Publication title -
journal of applied econometrics
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.878
H-Index - 99
eISSN - 1099-1255
pISSN - 0883-7252
DOI - 10.1002/jae.2760
Subject(s) - replicate , replication (statistics) , inflation (cosmology) , model selection , variable (mathematics) , econometrics , reduction (mathematics) , selection (genetic algorithm) , path (computing) , bayesian probability , computer science , economics , statistics , mathematics , artificial intelligence , mathematical analysis , physics , theoretical physics , programming language , geometry
Summary In this paper, we revisit the well‐known UK inflation model by Hendry ( Journal of Applied Econometrics , 2001, 16 , 255–275. We replicate the results in a narrow sense using the gretl and PcGive programs. In a wide sense, we extend the study of model uncertainty using the Bayesian averaging of classical estimates (BACE) approach as an automatic model reduction strategy. We consider three different specifications to compare BACE variable selection with Hendry's reduction. We find that the BACE method can recover the path of nontrivial reduction strategy.