Premium
Panel parametric, semiparametric, and nonparametric construction of counterfactuals
Author(s) -
Hsiao Cheng,
Zhou Qiankun
Publication year - 2019
Publication title -
journal of applied econometrics
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.878
H-Index - 99
eISSN - 1099-1255
pISSN - 0883-7252
DOI - 10.1002/jae.2702
Subject(s) - counterfactual conditional , nonparametric statistics , counterfactual thinking , econometrics , semiparametric regression , parametric statistics , panel data , turnout , semiparametric model , economics , consumption (sociology) , per capita , computer science , mathematics , statistics , psychology , voting , political science , social psychology , social science , population , demography , sociology , politics , law
Summary We consider panel parametric, semiparametric and nonparametric methods of constructing counterfactuals. We show through extensive simulations that no method is able to dominate other methods in all circumstances, since the true data‐generating process is typically unknown. We therefore also suggest a model‐averaging method as a robust method to generate counterfactuals. As an illustration of the sensitivity of counterfactual construction, we reexamine the impact of California's Tobacco Control Program on per capita cigarette consumption and election day registration (EDR) laws on voters' turnout by different methods.