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Unraveling the Relationship Between Presidential Approval and the Economy: A Multidimensional Semiparametric Approach
Author(s) -
Berlemann Michael,
Enkelmann Sören,
Kuhlenkasper Torben
Publication year - 2014
Publication title -
journal of applied econometrics
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.878
H-Index - 99
eISSN - 1099-1255
pISSN - 0883-7252
DOI - 10.1002/jae.2380
Subject(s) - presidential system , econometrics , economics , nonparametric statistics , context (archaeology) , unemployment , popularity , inflation (cosmology) , semiparametric regression , macroeconomics , political science , paleontology , physics , politics , theoretical physics , law , biology
Summary Empirical studies analyzing the determinants of US presidential popularity have delivered quite inconclusive results concerning the role of economic variables by assuming linear relationships. We employ penalized spline smoothing in the context of semiparametric additive mixed models and allow for flexible functional forms and thus possible nonlinear effects for the economic determinants. By controlling for the well‐known politically motivated covariables, we find strong evidence for nonlinear and negative effects of unemployment, inflation and government consumption on presidential approval. Additionally, we present new results in favor of nonparametric trivariate interaction effects between the macroeconomic covariables. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.