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A Theoretical Foundation for the Nelson–Siegel Class of Yield Curve Models
Author(s) -
Krippner Leo
Publication year - 2015
Publication title -
journal of applied econometrics
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.878
H-Index - 99
eISSN - 1099-1255
pISSN - 0883-7252
DOI - 10.1002/jae.2360
Subject(s) - yield curve , affine term structure model , affine transformation , econometrics , mathematics , mathematical economics , representation (politics) , class (philosophy) , economics , factor analysis , gaussian , interest rate , pure mathematics , computer science , macroeconomics , physics , quantum mechanics , artificial intelligence , politics , political science , law
Summary Yield curve models within the popular Nelson–Siegel class are shown to arise from formal low‐order Taylor approximations of the generic Gaussian affine term structure model. Extensive empirical testing on government and bank‐risk yield curve datasets for the five largest industrial economies shows that the arbitrage‐free three‐factor (Level, Slope, Curvature) Nelson–Siegel model generally provides an acceptable representation of the data relative to the three‐factor Gaussian affine term structure model. The combined theoretical foundation and empirical evidence means that Nelson–Siegel models may be applied and interpreted from the perspective of Gaussian affine term structure models that already have firm statistical and theoretical foundations in the literature. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.