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Measuring forecast uncertainty by disagreement: The missing link
Author(s) -
Lahiri Kajal,
Sheng Xuguang
Publication year - 2010
Publication title -
journal of applied econometrics
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.878
H-Index - 99
eISSN - 1099-1255
pISSN - 0883-7252
DOI - 10.1002/jae.1167
Subject(s) - econometrics , proxy (statistics) , aggregate (composite) , economics , ex ante , consensus forecast , survey of professional forecasters , reliability (semiconductor) , forecast error , statistics , mathematics , monetary policy , macroeconomics , quantum mechanics , power (physics) , materials science , physics , composite material
Using a standard decomposition of forecast errors into common and idiosyncratic shocks, we show that aggregate forecast uncertainty can be expressed as the disagreement among the forecasters plus the perceived variability of future aggregate shocks. Thus the reliability of disagreement as a proxy for uncertainty will be determined by the stability of the forecasting environment and the length of the forecast horizon. Using density forecasts from the Survey of Professional Forecasters, we find direct evidence in support of our hypothesis. Our results support the use of GARCH‐type models, rather than the ex post squared errors in consensus forecasts, to estimate the ex ante variability of aggregate shocks as a component of aggregate uncertainty. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.