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Climbing the drug staircase: a Bayesian analysis of the initiation of hard drug use
Author(s) -
BrettevilleJensen Anne Line,
Jacobi Liana
Publication year - 2011
Publication title -
journal of applied econometrics
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.878
H-Index - 99
eISSN - 1099-1255
pISSN - 0883-7252
DOI - 10.1002/jae.1160
Subject(s) - bayesian probability , norwegian , computer science , cannabis , climbing , drug , econometrics , linkage (software) , gateway (web page) , psychology , economics , artificial intelligence , psychiatry , biology , ecology , philosophy , linguistics , biochemistry , world wide web , gene
Since empirical studies have shown that cannabis users are much more likely to initiate hard drug use, a causal linkage has been suggested (‘gateway hypothesis’). However, individual differences in proneness and accessibility to drugs provide alternative non‐causal explanations for the observed drug use pattern. We propose a Bayesian estimation and predictive framework to analyze the effects and relative importance of previous cannabis use, proneness and accessibility factors on hard drug initiation and to explore possible policy implications. We employ a novel model specification, motivated by four gateway transmission channels, to analyze data from a recent Norwegian survey of young adults. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.